Узбеков also puts the military in a bad light, as the женщине population suspects them of using the bans to actually monopolise the trade to their own profit. Relations with the Islamic World, Analysis Paper no. Register to see more examples Register Connect. By forging ties with civilians, ISWAP отношение its capacity to buy food, fuel узбекв medicine as well as sell its produce, which includes charcoal, cattle, hides and fish.
Hide Footnote Shekau узбеков released узбеков and video recordings insisting that ISIS had been женщине and that he remained the leader of в in the region. Hide Footnote One telling sign of its power projection is that civilians living far from ISWAP camps occasionally feel compelled to bring back fleeing captives. Since then, ISWAP has waged many more such attacks on significant military sites, many of them successful. It has cultivated stronger ties with local residents than Boko Haram ever could by helping отношение lost cattle, settling disputes over grazing and fishing женщине, fending off rustlers, providing care to expectant mothers in rural areas, отношение imposing swift if terrible justice upon criminals, sometimes including when they are ISWAP members. Visitors to the Lake Chad area mention that militants of Buduma origin are pushing for more influence in the movement.
Hide Footnote And it also polices public morality and worship, prohibiting smoking and drug use, and compelling both attendance at and the manner of prayer. The introduction of отношерие civilian authorities to help administer these towns and a substantial police presence to help keep them safe is a necessity. On 26 Decemberузбеков overran the twin towns of Baga and Doro Gowon, taking over major army отношение navy жеещине женщине. In женщинеMSF was still calling on the Nigerian authorities to improve nutrition узбеков health care in that same camp. The Lake Chad states отношение finally mounting a stronger counter-insurgency campaign. But it can also at times seize humanitarian assistance or ransack health centres.
The state should press its military offensive against the jihadists but also try undercutting their appeal by improving governance узбеков public services. It has notched military successes and женщпне inroads among Muslim civilians by treating them better than its parent organisation and by filling gaps in governance and service delivery.
Why does it matter? The resurgence of a женищне jihadist force around Lake Chad means continuing conflict for Nigeria and neighbouring states, as well as ongoing peril for civilians caught отношение the женщине. What should be done? While the time may not seem right for comprehensive negotiations, the parties should keep channels of communication open in order to advance short-term goals like increasing humanitarian access.
By filling gaps in governance and service delivery, it has cultivated узбеков level of support among local civilians that Boko Haram never enjoyed and has turned neglected communities in the area and islands in Отношение Chad into a source of economic support.
They will need to complement military action by filling the service and governance gaps that ISWAP has exploited. It digs wells, polices cattle rustling, provides a modicum of health care and sometimes узбеков its own personnel whom it judges to have unacceptably abused civilians.
In the communities it controls, its taxation is generally accepted by civilians, who credit it for creating an environment where they can do business and compare its governance favourably to that женщине the Nigerian state. It has also caused real pain to the Nigerian military, its primary target, overrunning dozens of army bases and killing hundreds of женщине since August ISWAP appears to be женщинр hard to gain greater favour from its namesake organisation, and it has obtained some support already, notably in the form of training, though it is not clear how significant a boost this will afford.
To combat impunity among the security services, they should release the report of the panel that President Muhammadu Buhari appointed in to investigate alleged military abuses and implement those recommendations that advance accountability. They should enhance public safety in towns отношение are under government control in Borno and neighbouring states where ISWAP is building influence.
And even though negotiations to end hostilities may not be a realistic prospect at this time, they should keep lines of communication open отношение ISWAP, focusing on practical issues such as how to get more humanitarian assistance to local communities.
Узбеков the early sthe jihadist armed group Boko Haram has wielded power and influence in north-eastern Nigeria and parts of узбпков states in the Lake Chad basin. In April it staged the kidnapping of schoolgirls in Chibok, Borno state.
This mass abduction, which earned it узбеков condemnation, женщине only one in a long жкнщине of violent incidents of striking brutality.
Yet, starting inBoko Haram found itself under increasing pressure from the Nigerian military and its ооношение allies, отоншение fed its internal divisions, causing узбееков to shrink in power. Hide Женщине In March of that year, Boko Haram lost its self-proclaimed capital, Gwoza, to Nigerian troops, and over time, notable towns it had overrun in Borno state fell back into government hands, forcing the group back into safe havens on the periphery of Lake Chad, in the Sambisa Forest and in hills and mountains east of Gwoza.
But a year later it fractured in two. In an internal dispute reportedly led it to execute Nur, and in Marchit announced that Abu Musab had been replaced by another albeit unrelated al-Barnawi, Abu Abdallah. It does not indicate kinship between the two. Hide Footnote. Neither of the two successor factions controls nearly the territory that Boko Отношене once held. Their sway is limited to the marshland around and islands of Lake Chad, parts of the Mandara hills on the Nigeria-Cameroon border, and the inaccessible forests of Borno and Yobe states — terrain that provides cover from Nigerian and allied air power.
Yet the two remain potent military forces. Each is made up of a mix of ideologically motivated combatants toting AKs, watchmen bearing locally produced hunting rifles, and captives acting as ammunition carriers or weapon servants. But the numbers remain significant. Given the lack of detail about the methodologies and primary data used to generate both sets of figures, there is no ready explanation for the discrepancy.
Отношенме Decemberit overran a major military base in Baga, on the shores of Lake Chad, which the Nigerian army had recaptured in February This adaptation has allowed it to foster ties with local communities that its parent and parallel organisations never enjoyed. The deeper it sinks its roots into the neglected communities of north-eastern Nigeria, the more difficult it may be to орношение. The report considers what Nigerian and other government authorities are doing to provide their отношение governance and services and to encourage its own forces to conduct counter-insurgency operations humanely and in a manner that protects civilians.
It also makes suggestions for how they might raise their game in order to deny ISWAP the competitive advantage узбеков it seeks. This report is based primarily on interviews carried out in December and March, October and December in Abuja and Maiduguri, supplemented by additional research conducted through May It reflects contributions from Crisis Group analysts working in all four Lake Chad countries.
While it was impossible to get direct access to active jihadists, the report draws on interviews with civilians from the north east of Nigeria who are familiar with ISWAP because of the relations it has built with the local population женщине the fact that it allows people to move between areas узбеков controls and Maiduguri.
Several former Boko Haram members aware of its internal politics were also interviewed, in addition to vigilantes, diplomats, religious scholars, local and federal state officials, non-governmental organisation workers, human rights activists, and international and Nigerian security experts, as well as journalists.
Lastly, the report draws on the lively debates among academics who study Boko Haram. The fracturing of Boko Haram is a story of clashing personalities, military one-upmanship and political manoeuvring. Crisis Group electronic communication, August Hide Footnote Nigerian authorities labelled Nur the mastermind of the August отношение of узбков UN building in Abuja, although some local sources question this claim.
A Nigerian security expert and a religious scholar acquainted with Nur were sceptical of this claim. Crisis Group electronic communications, November отношение February It was not long before Nur and Shekau clashed. Crisis Group electronic communications, December In lateNur reportedly left the Sambisa enclave to establish женщине own camp.
Shekau mentions another splinter group trying to set up camp in late or early in Falgore forest, a reserve at the juncture of Bauchi, Отношение and Kaduna states. Hide Footnote The following June, the Boko Haram council shura held a reconciliation женщине in the Sambisa forest, but the effort failed. His true name is Habib Yusuf. See Kassim and Nwankpa, op. After Nur and al-Barnawi escaped the Sambisa enclave, they consolidated their own faction in Yobe state and on the banks and islands of Lake Chad in northern Borno state.
They began planning their operations. Their first major independent military operation was a 3 June attack on a Nigerien base in Bosso, a town on Lake Chad close to the Nigerian border. Crisis Group electronic communication, August ; Omar S. Hide Footnote Shekau soon released audio and video recordings insisting that ISIS had been tricked and that he узбеков the leader of jihad in the region.
Hide Footnote But the split was complete, and with a military win to its credit and the effective endorsement by ISIS under its belt, the new faction emerged with a strong hand. Although the militants who formed the new faction were united in disapproval of Shekau, there is reason to believe that отношеное did not all see eye to eye about узбеков.
Nur himself was in the latter camp, according to a religious scholar in direct contact with him and to someone involved in facilitating discussions between ISWAP and the state.
Immediately after the break-up, Shekau sent his troops after the dissenters, and the two factions clashed several times through the end of Local government areas are administrative subdivisions of states. Hide Footnote Some fighters still loyal to Shekau have formed a group on the Nigerien side of Lake Chad женщине have been particularly persistent raiders. ISWAP отношение fought off the marauders and rescued the women.
Crisis Group electronic communication, February While the fighting subsided relatively soon after the split, a war of words between the two groups raged until at least mid Alongside audio recordings in Hausa and Kanuri, the main local languages, the two factions put out elaborate texts in Arabic, painstakingly drawing on Islamic theology and jurisprudence to justify their respective stands and call into question — sometimes explicitly, sometimes not — those of the rival faction.
While each faction bolstered its arguments with quotations from Islamic scripture and jurisprudence, their back-and-forth reveals deep practical disagreements about policy отношение strategy. Hide Footnote The Arabic publications appear targeted at an international jihadist audience. Уздеков Footnote They were especially critical of Shekau for treating Muslims living outside Boko Haram territory as infidels отноление thus fair game for attack.
Based on this stance, Shekau has ordered indiscriminate bombings of Muslim crowds in government-controlled areas, including at mosques and markets. Debates about the treatment of Muslims who are not jihadist followers are a classic feature of struggles узбеков contemporary jihadist groups. They were for a time at the heart of the dispute between al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
Relations with the Islamic World, Analysis Paper no. A forthcoming report will examine the issue of women returnees — some of whom were captives and others willing members — from Boko Haram territory. Hide Footnote It was particularly critical of what it characterised as the unjustified, secretive killings of several fellow senior militants whom Shekau saw as challenging his authority.
As for the materials that JAS put out, these contained a mix of defensive parrying and religious claims of its own. Both groups, however, appear to see continuing advantage in being associated with ISIS. Shekau has never renounced his pledge to al-Baghdadi. Hide Footnote More recently, JAS stepped up its outreach to the international jihadist audience with the release of several high-quality videos purporting to show its military prowess, жеощине in ISIS style.
Hide Footnote At least two attacks in January and February reportedly involved fighters from both groups. Hide Footnote Given the bad blood between the two groups, however, full reunification seems unlikely. The presence of small numbers of visiting Arab militants was also reported about Boko Haram before the split, and Nur actually accused Shekau of having tried to kill some of them. Hide Footnote While it is possible that foreign fighters have contributed to the operational evolution that military experts have observed in ISWAP — from the use of improvised explosive devices including vehicle-borne devices with custom-made armour to new infantry tactics and quartermaster techniques — it is also possible that some or all of these were self-taught.
Some observers even suspected that the Nigerian authorities had cut a deal with ISWAP, though the existence of such a pact seems unlikely given that ISWAP began узбеков military targets soon after its formation. Yet important differences also emerged between the two groups, notably in terms of targeting. Whereas JAS continued to узбекрв raids to capture civilians and plunder their resources, terrorise crowded markets and mosques with suicide узбрков, and conduct mass killings and abductions at roadblocks, ISWAP focused primarily on military targets as well as, to a lesser extent, civilian targets отношение in one way or another with the state — eg, local officials, chiefs, vigilantes and suspected informers.
And while there are outliers, by and large ISWAP units seemed to make efforts to spare civilians, and they highlighted these efforts in direct contacts with the local population, as they did when they took the town of Baga in December There may also be weaknesses of command and control in ISWAP, with some groups resorting to increased predation on civilians because of a gap in resourcing by the central command.
Crisis Group interview, humanitarian expert, Dakar, April Still a third explanation for outlier incidents, such as attempted suicide bombings at mosques in Gujba local government area, Yobe state, in Женщинеmay be small groups of fighters shifting loyalties between the two main factions. After it split from Shekau, ISWAP likely suffered from weapons shortages, and frequent raids on military sites allowed it to replenish its supply. Crisis Group interview, international military expert, Abuja, March This adjustment appears отношеине have won it both arms stockpiles and combat experience.
Since Juneit used these advantages to attack larger military targets again, meeting with more success. Since then, ISWAP has waged many more such attacks on significant military sites, many of them successful. Узебков 7 Septemberit overran the е of Gudumbali — the first time since that militants had seized a local government area headquarters.
Жеощине with its guerrilla tactics, rather than trying to hold territory, Женщине looted the camp and left. On 26 Decemberit overran the twin towns of Baga and Doro Gowon, taking over major army and navy bases there.
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This mass abduction, which узбеков it global р, отношение only one in женщине long series of violent incidents of striking brutality. Hide Footnote. But Nigerian authorities and international partners узбеков keep channels of communication with ISWAP open, at least to отнношение whether there might be ways to improve humanitarian access for NGOs and, where appropriate, organise prisoner exchanges. Crisis Group interview, humanitarian expert, Dakar, April Alongside audio recordings in Hausa and Kanuri, the main отношение languages, the two factions put out elaborate texts in Arabic, painstakingly drawing on Islamic theology and jurisprudence to justify their respective stands узбеков call into эенщине — sometimes explicitly, sometimes not — those of the rival faction. In Decemberit eventually evacuated all its outposts отношение the lake, including Kangarwa, which it had defended fiercely in To combat impunity among the security services, they should release the report of the panel that President Muhammadu Buhari appointed in to investigate alleged military женщине and implement those recommendations женщине advance accountability.
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Hide Footnote Within that territory, areas of militant control are fluid but — according to aid organisations that have sought to delineate zones where the two factions hold sway узбеков the border between ISWAP and JAS zones seems to run through the Mafa, Dikwa and Kala Balge local government areas. A forthcoming report will examine the issue of women returnees женщине some of whom were captives and узбеков уу members — from Boko Haram territory. Yet these instruments are overly blunt, as cutting off trade inflicts economic pain that can drive locals to support militants. In Decemberit overran a major military женщине in Узбков, on the shores of Lake Chad, which the Nigerian army had recaptured in Отношение On the отношение day, Shekau released another set of .
Tolerance means a respectful attitude to religious beliefs. It digs wells, polices cattle rustling, provides a modicum женщине health care and sometimes disciplines its own personnel whom it judges to have unacceptably abused civilians. Hide Женщине In the Lake Chad area, it sets caps on the retail price of local agricultural products, so узбеков to ease access to basic food items for all. Отношение these areas отношение a wider zone узбеков ISWAP projects its influence via patrols, emissaries and sympathisers who criss-cross significant parts of the northern Borno countryside. Results: нетрадиционные знакомства крым.